Written for EO by Dr. Gleb Tsipursky, disaster avoidance expert, speaker and author.
You probably heard the advice for entrepreneurs that “failing to plan is planning to fail.” That phrase is a misleading myth at best and actively dangerous at worst. Making plans is important, but our gut reaction is to plan for the best-case outcomes, ignoring the high likelihood that things will go wrong.
A much better phrase is “failing to plan for problems is planning to fail.” To address the very high likelihood that problems will crop up, you need to plan for contingencies.
When was the last time you saw a major planned project suffer from a cost overrun? It’s not as common as you might think for a project with a clear plan to come in at or under budget.
For instance, a 2002 study of major construction projects found that 86 percent went over budget. In turn, a 2014 study of IT projects found that only 16.2 percent succeeded in meeting the originally planned resource expenditure. Of the 83.8 percent of projects that did not, the average IT project suffered from a cost overrun of 189 percent.
Going over budget can seriously damage your bottom line. Imagine if a serious IT project such as implementing a new database at your organization goes even 50 percent over budget, which is much less than the average cost overrun. You might be facing many thousands or even millions of dollars in unplanned expenses, causing you to draw on funds assigned for other purposes and harming all of your plans going forward.
What explains cost overruns? They largely stem from the planning fallacy, our intuitive belief that everything will go according to plan, whether in IT projects or in other areas of business and life.
The planning fallacy is one of many dangerous judgment errors, which are mental blind spots resulting from how our brain is wired that scholars in cognitive neuroscience and behavioral economics call cognitive biases. Fortunately, recent research in these fields shows how you can use pragmatic strategies to address these dangerous judgment errors, whether in your professional life, your relationships, your shopping choices, or other areas in life.
Solving the Planning Fallacy
Specifically for the planning fallacy, my coaching and consulting clients have found three specific research-based techniques effective.
First, break down each project into component parts. An IT firm struggled with a pattern of taking on projects that ended up losing money for the company. We evaluated the specific component parts of the projects that had cost overruns and found that the biggest unanticipated money drain came from permitting the client to make too many changes at the final stages of the project. As a result, the IT firm changed its process to minimize any changes at the tail end of the project.
Second, use your past experience with similar projects to inform your estimates for future projects. A heavy equipment manufacturer had a systemic struggle with underestimating project costs. In one example, a project that was estimated to cost US$2 million ended up costing US$3 million. We suggested making it a requirement for project managers to use past project costs to inform future projections. Doing so resulted in much more accurate project cost estimates.
Third, for projects with which you have little past experience, use an external perspective from a trusted and objective source. A financial services firm whose CEO I coached wanted to move its headquarters after it outgrew its current building. I connected the CEO with a couple of other CEO clients who recently moved and expressed a willingness to share their experience. This experience helped the financial services CEO anticipate contingencies he didn’t previously consider, ranging from additional marketing expenses to print new collateral with the updated address to lost employee productivity due to changing schedules as a result of a different commute.
If you take away one message from this article, remember that the key to addressing cost overruns is to remember that “failing to plan for problems is planning to fail.” Use this phrase as your guide to prevent cost overruns and avoid falling prey to the dangerous judgment error of planning fallacy.
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky is CEO of the training, coaching, and consulting firm Disaster Avoidance Experts, which empowers entrepreneurs to avoid business disasters by addressing potential threats, maximizing unexpected opportunities and resolving persistent personnel problems. He’s an EO speaker, a recent EO 360° podcast guest and author of Never Go With Your Gut, The Blind Spots Between Us and The Truth Seeker’s Handbook.